Business Strategy

AI to drive GDP growth – PwC

BY Richard Summerfield

Across a wide spectrum of industries there is burgeoning excitement around the implementation and applications of artificial intelligence (AI). While there will be myriad challenges with properly leveraging AI, a new report from PwC suggests that global GDP could be up to 14 percent higher in 2030 as a result of AI – the equivalent of adding an additional $15.7 trillion to the global economy.

Though AI is, in some respects, a mystery for many organisations, in terms of how it will impact them and alter their business models, it is important for companies to embrace AI where possible. AI can enhance many different areas of organisations’ businesses, according to PwC, which, in turn, will drive economic gains.

Productivity will be boosted by companies automating processes using robots and autonomous vehicles. Companies will also be able to augment their existing labour forces by installing AI technologies, including assisted and augmented intelligence. Consumer demand will also be altered by AI. Personalised and higher-quality AI-enhanced products and services will drive consumer activity.

The report notes that all regions of the global economy will experience benefits from AI, including North America, China, Europe and developed Asia. China will see GDP grow by 26 percent to 2030, and North America will receive a 14.5 percent boost. However, emerging markets will see more modest growth in the coming years, at less than 6 percent of GDP, due to lower AI adoption rates forecast for Latin America and Africa.

According to the report: “The ultimate commercial potential of AI is doing things that have never been done before, rather than simply automating or accelerating existing capabilities. Some of the strategic options that emerge won’t match past experience or gut feelings. As a business leader, you may therefore have to take a leap of faith. The prize is being far more capable, in a far more relevant way, than your business could ever be without the infinite possibilities of AI.”

On a sectoral basis, the industries most likely to benefit from the emergence of AI will be retail, financial services and healthcare, thanks to improvements in productivity, product value and consumption.

Report: PwC’s Global Artificial Intelligence Study: Exploiting the AI Revolution

Uncertain world forcing global technology leaders to rethink strategies, says new survey

BY Fraser Tennant

Unprecedented political and economic uncertainty across the globe is forcing technology leaders to rethink their strategies, according to a survey carried out by Harvey Nash and KPMG.

‘Navigating Uncertainty’ is the largest IT leadership survey ever undertaken and includes 4498 responses from chief information officers (CIOs) and technology executives across 86 countries. In the main, the survey finds that technology leaders believe that the level of change they are experiencing has reached unprecedented levels and is increasingly coming from unexpected corners.

That said, many technology executives are turning this uncertainty into opportunity and are helping their organisations to become more nimble and digital, a strategic rethink they feel will help them navigate through unpredictable change and thrive in an uncertain world.

“Few would have predicted the seismic shift caused by recent political change in many western countries”, wrote Albert Ellis, chief executive of Harvey Nash Group. “And few would have predicted the astonishing advances that have been made in data analytics, cloud, or – as this year’s survey reveals – automation."

The survey’s key findings include: (i) two-thirds of organisations are adapting their technology strategy because of unprecedented global political and economic uncertainty; (ii) 89 percent of organisations are maintaining or ramping up investment in innovation, including in digital labour; (iii) digital strategies have been embraced by businesses at an entirely new level; (iv) cyber security vulnerability is at an all-time high; (v) female CIOs are far more likely to have received a salary increase than male CIOs in the past year, although the number of women in IT leadership remains low at nine percent; and (vi) weak ownership, an overly optimistic approach and unclear objectives are the main reasons why IT projects fail.

The survey (now in its 19th year) also found a clear divergence between organisations that are effective at digital transformation and those that are not. CIOs at these ‘digital leader’ organisations are almost twice as likely to be leading innovation across the business and their organisations are investing in cognitive automation at four times the rate of others.

“Whilst the future might be difficult to predict, what is very clear is that many technology executives are turning this uncertainty into opportunity”, wrote Lisa Heneghan, global head of technology at KPMG. “They are helping their organisations become more nimble and digital, to navigate through unpredictable change and thrive in an uncertain world.”

Report: Navigating Uncertainty

Asian growth slower and profits elusory, says new EY/HBR Analytic Services report

BY Fraser Tennant

Opportunities for companies in the Asia-Pacific region to grow are fewer and profits more elusive, according to a new report by EY and Harvard Business Review (HBR) Analytic Services.

In ‘Asia: Time to Refocus’, EY/HBR Analytic Services note that despite Asia having been a major source of growth for multinationals and private equity firms for 20 years, expected profits have not materialised and the current outlook is that the land-grabbing strategies of old are no longer sustainable.

Moreover, the Asia-Pacific companies that once relied upon an almost unlimitless potential for growth but that are now struggling to adapt their products and value propositions, are being advised to adopt a ‘depth-over-breadth’ capital strategy in order to re-engage with the region’s complex business environment. 

“Asia today is not the Asia of 20 years ago, or 10 years ago, or even five years ago," said Vikram Chakravarty, EY’s Asia-Pacific capital transformation and operational transaction services leader. “It continues to grow faster than most developed economies, but more slowly than it did in the past.

“It remains a region of great opportunity, but also one where profitability remains elusive for those unwilling to invest the resources necessary to tailor their offerings and business models to its individual markets.”

The challenge for companies in the region, says Chakravarty, is for them to identify how and where they should be focusing their capital and other resources, and also where they should be taking a step back.

To do this, the EY/HBR Analytic Services report advises companies looking to transition to a new capital strategy in Asia to: (i) conduct a portfolio review; (ii) launch a large-scale cost-cutting initiative to improve profitability; (iii) right-size their go-to-market models; (iv) reorganise to emphasise country over category; (v) plan a path to exit, and limit losses, where market leadership and profitability are not realistic; and (vi) double down in priority countries by undertaking transformative deals — big-bang M&A transactions and partnerships — to boost market share quickly.

Chakravarty concluded: “Companies that have yet to see Asia’s promise cascade to the bottom line must determine where they have a path to profitability and focus their attention there. Depth, not breadth, will win the day.”

Report: ‘Asia: Time to Refocus’

Energy faces uncertain future as megatrends transform oil & gas sector

BY Fraser Tennant

Industry megatrends, such as historically low commodity prices, are transforming the oil & gas sector with a challenging future the likely outcome, according to PwC’s New Energy Futures report published this week.

Recognising the uncertainty clouding the sector’s future, the report proposes a framework which evaluates four potential future scenarios that could help companies successfully navigate an increasingly complex and volatile global market over the next 5 to 15 years.

The four are: (i)  the oil and gas sector evolves along current lines with limited government intervention; (ii) demand from energy consumers (retail & commercial) for cleaner energy drives the transition towards a low carbon; (iii) governments drive increased energy efficiency, expansion of renewable energy demand and accelerated development of disruptive technologies; and (iv) supply constraints are triggered through direct government action, such as implementing carbon legislation or withholding licences (e.g,. Shale, Arctic) or geopolitical disruption.

“Global demand for affordable, reliable energy will continue to grow for the foreseeable future, but there is a new longer-term backdrop, as the world transitions to a low carbon system,” said Viren Doshi, PwC’s Strategy& oil and gas leader. “Momentum to replace fossil fuels with cleaner energy sources is building, and oil and gas companies need to consider their futures in this context."

The report also recommends that companies across the oil & gas chain: (i) have a clear strategy and alignment with portfolio, decision making processes and capabilities; (ii) have an ability to be agile and resilient in uncertain times; (iii) have an innovative response to disruptive change using existing assets as well as technology, knowledge and capabilities; (iv) have a readiness to form alliances and collaborate across the supply chain; and (v) safeguard the social licence to operate by sustaining the trust and support of investors and wider stakeholders through increased transparency.

Jan-Willem Velthuijsen, PwC’s chief economist in Europe, believes that the recommendations will allow companies to “reassess their current strategy and plans, with implications for the operating model, partnering strategy, resourcing and technical capabilities and other areas".

Despite all the uncertainty and prediction of a challenging future, Mr Doshi is in no doubt as to oil and gas sector’s ability to innovate and adapt to a rapidly changing world: “Time and again, successful operators have demonstrated the ability to respond to challenges by taking a long term view, innovating, adapting and gauging major trends as they define medium-long term investment plans.

“We are convinced that they can do so again."

Gender equality key to GDP growth?

BY Richard Summerfield               

Women today continue to face myriad social and economic barriers to attaining true gender parity. However, according to a new report from the McKinsey Global Institute, a lack of gender equality not only hinders women, it is also holding back the global economy to the tune of $28 trillion.

The world’s gross domestic product (GDP) could be uplifted by the equivalent of the combined economies of the US and China - $28 trillion - by 2025, according to the report, entitled 'The power of parity: How advancing women’s equality can add $12 trillion to global growth'. This economic uptick is contingent on women performing identical labour roles to their male equivalents. “We would call it an opportunity cost - this is the value at stake,” says Anu Madgavkar, a senior fellow at the McKinsey Global Institute and one of the authors of the report.

According to the research, women currently generate just 37 percent of global GDP. However, if they gained gender parity, they could boost the global economy by the equivalent of the US and Chinese economies combined. Even incremental progress on gender equality could be hugely beneficial to the global economy. If every country matched the participation rates of the highest-performing countries in their region, global activity would increase by $12 trillion – a figure equal to the combined GDPs of Japan, Germany and the UK.

Three of the major roadblocks which hold women back, according to the report, are lower workforce participation, fewer hours worked, and the fact that women are disproportionately represented in low-productivity sectors like agriculture. The notion that women are expected to take on the role of unpaid care in their personal lives also has a detrimental effect on their ability to contribute more significantly to global GDP. “When we looked at all the elements of gender inequality in work, unpaid care work was one of the top factors,” notes Ms Madgavkar.

Clearly, the role that women can play in advancing the global economy is considerable; however, it is important to note that gender equality in the workplace must go hand in hand with equality in wider society: "Realising the economic prize of gender parity requires the world to address fundamental drivers of the gap in work equality, such as education, health, connectivity, security, and the role of women in unpaid work".

Report: The power of parity: How advancing women’s equality can add $12 trillion to global growth

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