PE managers optimistic that deal and exit activity will expand in H2 2016 and beyond

BY Fraser Tennant

Private equity (PE) fund managers are predicting an increase in growth across the industry over the next 12 months, including an uptick in investor interest and exit activity, according to a new survey released this week by Preqin. 

The survey, a snapshot of the views of 187 PE fund managers by Preqin, found that two-thirds of those surveyed expect to see investors commit significantly more to the asset class over the next year.

Conversely, only 4 percent of survey respondents expect total assets under management to decrease during this time.

Additional survey finding include: (i) 47 percent of fund managers reported an increased appetite from investors in Europe, with significant interest also observed in North America (45 percent) and Asia (40 percent); (ii) respondents reported an increased appetite from family offices (58 percent) and public pension funds (41 percent) compared to 12 months ago, while there has also been increased interest shown by private pension funds and sovereign wealth funds; and (iii) valuations remain the biggest concern for PE fund managers in the present climate, with 48 percent believing that the biggest challenge facing the industry is deal pricing.  

“This latest survey shows that private equity fund managers are still seeing growing appetite from investors,” said Christopher Elvin, head of private equity products at Preqin. “The portfolio diversification and record returns provided by the industry as of late have continued to attract investors to the asset class. Although the fundraising market remains ever-more competitive, recent high fundraising levels indicate that capital is continuing to flow into the market.”

In terms of the investment by region analysis, the survey reveals that a higher proportion of PE fund managers based outside of North America and Europe are planning to put more capital to work in the coming year - with 43 percent indicating an intention to deploy significantly more capital and 35 percent planning to marginally increase their investments.

Mr Elvin concluded: “Given the positive fundraising environment and an expected uptick in exit activity, fund managers are predicting industry assets under management will continue to grow over the next 12 months. Although perennial concerns over pricing and deal valuations remain prominent, managers are confident of putting more capital to work over the next 12 months as they attempt to find well-priced assets.”

Report: Private Equity Spotlight - August 2016

Emerging market PE and VC investments outperform non-US developed counterpart in Q4 2015

BY Fraser Tennant

Emerging market private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) investments outperformed their non-US developed market counterparts during the final quarter of 2015, according to a report released this week by Cambridge Associates.

The report, one of Cambridge Associates’ quarterly benchmarks indexes, attributes the strong performance of emerging markets to strong exit environments in both the European and Asian regions. The index also highlights a weak euro as being a factor in bringing down non-US developed market returns (when measured in US dollars).

"In Q4 2015, investors in emerging market PE and VC funds enjoyed the fourth-largest quarterly distribution in the history of the index," said Vish Ramaswami, managing director at Cambridge Associates. “2015 saw the index's second-highest full-year distribution. And although the index returned less last year than in 2014, strong performance by media and IT companies drove solid returns for private investors in emerging markets.”

Drilling down, the Cambridge Associates Emerging Markets PE and VC Index increased 5.1 percent for the quarter and 8.5 percent for the year, a drop of almost 6 percent from its double-digit 2014 year-end result. In comparison, the Global ex US (non-US developed) Markets PE and VC Index’ returned 2 percent in US dollar terms in Q4, bringing the return for the year to 5.7 percent, a marginal improvement over 2014.

"Distributions to investors in non-US developed market PE and VC funds outpaced contributions for the fifth consecutive year in 2015, reaching a record high,” said Andrea Auerbach, head of global investment research at Cambridge Associates. “These payouts largely benefited investors in funds launched in 2005 through 2008, 2010 and 2012, who received over 80 percent of distributions."

Media was by far the best-performing sector in emerging markets PE/VC in 4Q 2015, returning 30.2 percent for the quarter and 55.8 percent for the year to investors. The second-best performer (for the quarter) was found to be manufacturing with a 7.5 percent return, while IT posted a 21.2 percent return for the year. As far as jurisdictional sway is concerned, China dominates emerging markets PE and VC at present.

Cambridge Associates derives its emerging markets and non-US developed PE/VC indexes from data compiled from institutional quality funds raised between 1986 and 2015.

Report: Global ex US PE/VC Benchmark Commentary - Quarter and Year Ending December 31, 2015

Thoma Bravo acquires Qlik for $3bn

BY Richard Summerfield

Visual analytics company Qlik has been acquired by private equity firm Thoma Bravo in a $3bn deal, the two firms have announced.

The deal, which will be an all cash affair, is expected to close in the third quarter of 2016, provided the transaction wins the approval of Qlik’s shareholders and satisfies the usual closing conditions, according to a joint statement announcing the merger. The offer will see Qlik’s shareholders receive $30.50 per Qlik share held, a premium of 40 percent over the company's 10 day average stock price prior to 3 March 2016.

According to the statement, Qlik, which went public in 2010, will remain headquartered in Radnor, Pennsylvania. The company will also retain its existing management team.

“We believe the proposed transaction is in the best interest of Qlik’s shareholders and provides the Company with additional flexibility to execute our strategic plan as we continue to diligently provide customers with the premier products and services they have come to expect,” said Lars Björk, chief executive of Qlik. “Thoma Bravo recognises the value that Qlik delivers – a platform that lets our customers see the whole story that lives within their data. Thoma Bravo has an excellent track record of investing in outstanding technology businesses for the long-term, and I am confident our employees, customers and partners will greatly benefit from our partnership with them.”

The future of Qlik had been up for debate for some time. Indeed, the company had been on the hunt for potential buyers and is believed to have received preliminary offers from a number of interested parties, including private equity groups. However, it was Thoma Bravo’s interest in the company that proved decisive.

“We look forward to partnering with the Qlik team as they continue to grow their platform-based approach to business intelligence (BI) and analytics,” said Orlando Bravo, a managing partner at Thoma Bravo. “As the need for analytic solutions grows, Qlik is well-positioned to continue to drive innovation and lead the market.”

Qlik has become the latest in a string of companies to be acquired by private equity groups at the urging of activist hedge fund Elliott Management Corp. Elliott disclosed an 8.8 percent stake in the company in March and began agitating for a sale. Qlik follows Compuware Corp, Riverbed Technology Inc, Blue Coat Systems and Informatica into private equity ownership in the wake of Elliott activism.

News: Thoma Bravo to buy analytics firm Qlik in $3 billion deal

PE exits in Africa reach nine-year high, new data confirms

BY Fraser Tennant

A focus on value and a diversification of approach caused private equity (PE) exits in Africa to reach a nine-year high in 2015, according to newly published data from EY and the African Private Equity and Venture Capital Association (AVCA).

In ‘How private equity investors create value’, EY and AVCA’s (the pan-African industry body which promotes and enables private investment in Africa) fourth annual analysis of the ways private equity investors create and preserve value in their companies in Africa, PE firms are noted as having exited 44 companies in 2015 – an increase from 39 in both 2014 and 2013.

This uptick in exits took place despite the fact that PE firms have retained their investments for a longer period – while waiting for the right moment to exit – due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, with the average hold period being 6.1 years in 2015, compared to five years in 2014.

“The last two years have seen an increase in the number of PE firms making exits in the African markets,” said Graham Stokoe, EY’s Africa private equity leader. “PE firms clearly are focused on adding value to their portfolio companies and are diversifying their approaches to help achieve this, including helping their portfolio companies expand geographically and bringing in new management.

“While the economic environment still poses challenges, PE firms continue to find ways to create value in their portfolios in the region and find new opportunities for exits.”

The EY/AVCA analysis highlights financial services as remaining the most common sector for exits in 2014 and 2015 (24 percent), with consumer goods and services (16 percent), industrials (14 percent) and healthcare (14 percent) also active during this period. In addition, the PE firms surveyed said highlighted the financial services, retail and consumer products, and education sectors as being the most interesting sectors for future investment.

“Our annual Africa PE exit study continues to show that despite changing macro-economic dynamics (including currency fluctuations, valuations trending upwards, and an intermediary landscape), PE firms are still continuing to outperform public markets, particularly in sectors such as finance, retail and fast-moving consumer goods, where there is burgeoning consumer demand," said Dorothy Kelso, AVCA’s head of research.

The EY/AVCA findings – based on PE exits between 2007 and 2015 and data drawn from detailed interviews with former PE owners of exited businesses – were published to coincide with the 13th Annual AVCA Conference in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Report: How private equity investors create value

A year in PE review

BY Richard Summerfield

Preqin's 'Private Equity Spotlight' report, released in December, highlights a number of the biggest trends in the PE space over the last 12 months.

One of the most notable features of the last year has been the drop in average holding periods for portfolio companies, from 5.9 years in 2014 to 5.5 this year. Back in 2008 it was 4.1 years. The year-on-year reduction in holding periods reflects the favourable exit conditions which have evolved.  To date, there have been 1595 PE exits valued at $426bn, compared to $457bn in 2014, a record year for PE exits.

The alternative assets space has become a prominent sector in recent years. The industry had around $7.1 trillion worth of assets under management in Q1 2015, up from $5.5 trillion in 2012. Given its increased size and importance, it is essential that investors and fund managers understand industry trends, according to Preqin. as a result, key metric analysis is a vital tool.

Sovereign wealth funds have also grown over the last 12 months. In March, Preqin reported that their global AUM had risen more than $900bn to reach $6.3 trillion. This stunning level of growth has come in spite of increasing volatility in the oil and commodity sectors.

Report: Private Equity Spotlight: 2015 in Review