Optimism has fallen: new survey highlights sharp slump in financial services sentiment

BY Fraser Tennant

Optimism in the financial services sector has slumped alarmingly in the past five years, with firms citing market instability, sector competition and macroeconomic uncertainty as their top three challenges, according to the new CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey published this week.

The survey, a quarterly analysis of 104 financial services firms, reveals that banking and investment management respondents in particular had seen the sharpest slump in sentiment, while optimism across building societies and in the insurance sector was found to be broadly flat.

Drilling down, the survey shows that optimism in the financial services sector has fallen at its fastest pace for over four years, with 14 percent of firms more optimistic, but 35 percent less so, giving a balance of minus 21 percent. In comparison, the balance was 24 percent in December 2011.

“Concerns over China and a volatile start to the year for markets, alongside uncertainty about a possible Brexit, have created a perfect storm to dampen optimism in financial services,” said Rain Newton-Smith, the director for economics at the CBI. “As we know from talking to CBI members, now that the referendum date has been set some investment decisions have been put on hold by some firms, though this is not widespread.

“Investment intentions for IT remain resilient, but spending plans are being scaled back in other areas. Investments are increasingly motivated by the need to promote efficiency, while uncertainty about demand appears to be holding additional investment spending back.”

However, despite the findings, the survey does indicate that business volumes have continued to expand at a solid pace, and profitability has improved, albeit at the slowest pace for two years. Overall, business volumes rose at a decent pace, with 44 percent of firms stating that volumes were up, 18 percent saying they were down, giving a balance of +26 percent.

The survey also notes an increase in staffing levels in financial services during the last quarter, though this uptick is expected to flatline in the next three months, with insurance and building society sector staff increases being offset by losses within the banking fraternity.

“The lack of opportunities to generate revenue has shifted the focus of financial services companies to how they make their business models more efficient or effective - no easy task in such an unpredictable climate,” said Kevin Burrowes, UK financial services leader at PwC. “Despite the pessimistic mood in the sector, it is very encouraging to see that many financial services organisations are planning to up their game around talent attraction and diversity."

News: ‘Perfect storm’ of events dampens optimism among financial services firms

Global M&A 1Q 2016 preliminary figures released

BY Fraser Tennant

Developments and trends in the global M&A space for the first quarter of 2016 are at the heart of a preliminary report published this week by Dealogic.

In ‘Global M&A Review: First Quarter 2016’, Dealogic reveals that the total M&A value seen in 1Q 2016 was $701.5bn – a 25 percent year-on-year drop on the previous three quarters which saw $1 trillion volume.

In terms of the key regional headline data, the Dealogic review of global M&A in 1Q 2016 reports that US targeted M&A volume was $248.2bn (accounting for 36 percent of global M&A volume) – down 40 percent year-on-year and the lowest 1Q share since the 30 percent seen in 2012. Turning to Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), targeted M&A volume was $217.9bn – 31 percent of global M&A and the highest quarterly share since 2Q 2013.

Cross-border activity accounted for a quarterly record high of 43 percent share of global M&A, some $302.6bn, falling just short of the record $314.6bn seen in 1Q 2015. China outbound M&A volume was $104.3bn, again, just short of the annual record high of $106.4bn set last year.

Leading the M&A advisor rankings is Goldman Sachs with transactions totalling £214.2bn, followed by JPMorgan on $153.1bn and UBS with $98.7bn.

Technology was the top sector with a total of $100.3bn, the second highest 1Q volume on record behind 1Q 2000 ($190.8bn). Conversely, the healthcare sector saw the biggest drop among the top five sectors in 1Q M&A volume, down 56 percent year-on-year to $58.7bn. 

The top 10 announced M&A transactions in the quarter were led by China National Chemical Corp’s  $48bn acquisition of Syngenta in February. This was the largest agribusiness deal and China outbound M&A deal on record. A distant second on the list is the $16.6bn acquisition of Tyco International by Johnson Controls, the largest telecom deal in the US since the Time Warner/Charter Communications transaction in May 2015.

The final 1Q 2016 M&A figures are scheduled to be released by Dealogic in early April.

Report: Global M&A Review - First Quarter 2016

Landmark year in global renewable energy investment

BY Richard Summerfield

Global investment in renewable energy reached record levels in 2015, according to a new report from the United Nations.

Renewable energy investment climbed to $286bn last year, a 3 percent increase on the previous record set in 2011, and more than double the $130bn invested in coal and gas power stations over the same period.

The report – Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2016 – is the tenth edition of the UN Environment Program’s annual publication and has been launched by the Frankfurt School-UNEP Collaborating Centre for Climate & Sustainable Energy Finance and Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).

“Global investment in renewables capacity hit a new record in 2015, far outpacing that in fossil fuel generating capacity despite falling oil, gas and coal prices,” said Michael Liebreich, chairman of the advisory board at BNEF. “It has broadened out to a wider and wider array of developing countries, helped by sharply reduced costs and by the benefits of local power production over reliance on imported commodities.”

One of the most notable features of the of the UN backed report is that while global investment in solar, wind and other renewable sources of energy has climbed considerably, for the first time ever the developing world accounted for the majority of investments. According to UNEP’s data, renewable investment in developing countries climbed 19 percent to $156bn in 2015, $103bn of which was invested in China alone. “Renewables are becoming ever more central to our low-carbon lifestyles, and the record-setting investments in 2015 are further proof of this trend,” said UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner.

However, the growth in developing economy investment contrasts with a fall in similar investment in the developed world. Though US investments rose 19 percent to $44bn, investments in developed countries fell 8 percent to $130bn. Investment in Europe was down 21 percent, from $62bn in 2014 to $48.8bn in 2015, the continent’s lowest figure for nine years, despite record investments in offshore wind projects. Japanese investment in renewable energy was much the same as the previous year, at $36.2bn.

There has been good progress made in renewable energy investment and it is clear that some structural changes to the energy space are underway; yet there is still a great deal of work to be done. Renewables still only accounted for one-tenth of global power generation, the majority of which comes from coal and natural gas.

Report: Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2016

Global IPO down in Q1 – EY

BY Richard Summerfield

Global initial public offering activity (IPO) suffered a significant decline during the first quarter of 2016, according to a new report from EY.

The firm’s quarterly report – EY Global IPO Trends: 2016 1Q – noted that 167 deals were completed, raising just $12.1bn. That makes it the poorest first quarter recorded since 2009. By comparison, 1Q 2015 saw 39 percent more volume and 70 percent more capital raised.

In the US, total capital raised declined 88 percent compared to the same period in 2015, falling to $753m. Deal numbers fell by 71 percent, with just 10 IPOs recorded, all of which came from the healthcare sector.

Though EY notes that the first quarter of the year is often the weakest for IPO activity, and there was always likely to be a period of depressed activity following several years of robust dealflow, many companies appear to be approaching the market more carefully than they have in years. The reason for this caution appears to be a number of issues permeating the global economy. Organisations have been spooked by fears of a global economic slowdown, increased volatility, falling oil prices and equity market turbulence. IPO activity has been weak in major markets including the Americas, the Asia Pacific region and EMEA.

The technology space, normally one of the most active sectors for US IPOs, was absent. Companies in Silicon Valley are seemingly content to wait out the market, delaying their IPOs until the market picks up.

Jackie Kelley, EY Americas IPO Leader, says: “With increased volatility in the markets and the uncertainty surrounding oil prices, interest rates and US elections, we expected a stop-start year for IPO activities. Despite a slower than usual start in the first quarter, we’re seeing signs that the IPO window will finally open. The pipeline of offerings ready to price is building up and IPOs are outperforming the S&P 500 this quarter. As the markets recover and confidence steadies, we are optimistic that IPO levels will start to trend closer to historic norms.”

Moving forward EY is confident that the slowdown in IPO activity will be short term. Once the economic slowdown, falling oil prices and equity markets stabilise, there should be a flotilla of companies ready to act on their IPO plans.

Report: EY Global IPO Trends: 2016 1Q

P&U sector rethinks business models to tackle cyber security challenges

BY Fraser Tennant

Understanding the cyber security challenges facing the power and utilities (P&U) sector and improving how businesses respond to them is the overarching theme of a new EY report published this week.

In EY’s ‘Creating trust in the digital world’ global information survey 2015, 1755 respondents from global P&U organisations provide insight into the most important cyber security issues facing the sector today – a sector currently undergoing major transformation due to the introduction of smart meters and data networks across the digital energy value chain.

Moreover, the onset of this digital energy value chain, what EY describes as the “attack surface” of P&U organisations, is expanding considerably, as is the sophistication and persistence of the cyber attacks being launched by cyber criminals.

Highlighting the main concerns of the P&U sector, the EY report reveals that 19 percent of P&U responders admit that they do not have an information security strategy; 46 percent point to a lack of executive awareness or support as a major obstacle to dealing with threats to cyber security; and 55 percent confirm that their organisation does not have a dedicated security operations centre (SOC).

In terms of how P&U organisations should manage a cyber attack, the report recommends that they first identify their key risk management principles and apply them to the cyber risk issue. Fundamentally, this means knowing their critical assets; making cyber risk more tangible; aligning cyber risk with existing risk frameworks; making cyber risk relevant to the business; and embedding risk appetite within investment decisions.   

Furthermore, says EY, organisations should adopt a three-stage improvement process: (i) ‘Activate’ (establishing and improving cyber security foundations); (ii) ‘Adapt’ (adapting cyber security to changing requirements); and (iii) ‘Anticipate’ (predicting what is coming to be better prepared).

“P&U companies are rethinking their business models by being more innovative and offering a richer customer and employee experience through a variety of channels”, states the report. “However, there are significant cyber threats, and organisations need to recognise and understand the current challenges to get ahead of the cyber criminals.”

Although the EY report makes it clear that the P&U organisations are indeed making significant progress as far as tightening up their cyber security, the overriding message is that there remains considerable room for improvement across the sector.

Report: Global information survey 2015: creating trust in the digital world