Global IPO down in Q1 – EY

BY Richard Summerfield

Global initial public offering activity (IPO) suffered a significant decline during the first quarter of 2016, according to a new report from EY.

The firm’s quarterly report – EY Global IPO Trends: 2016 1Q – noted that 167 deals were completed, raising just $12.1bn. That makes it the poorest first quarter recorded since 2009. By comparison, 1Q 2015 saw 39 percent more volume and 70 percent more capital raised.

In the US, total capital raised declined 88 percent compared to the same period in 2015, falling to $753m. Deal numbers fell by 71 percent, with just 10 IPOs recorded, all of which came from the healthcare sector.

Though EY notes that the first quarter of the year is often the weakest for IPO activity, and there was always likely to be a period of depressed activity following several years of robust dealflow, many companies appear to be approaching the market more carefully than they have in years. The reason for this caution appears to be a number of issues permeating the global economy. Organisations have been spooked by fears of a global economic slowdown, increased volatility, falling oil prices and equity market turbulence. IPO activity has been weak in major markets including the Americas, the Asia Pacific region and EMEA.

The technology space, normally one of the most active sectors for US IPOs, was absent. Companies in Silicon Valley are seemingly content to wait out the market, delaying their IPOs until the market picks up.

Jackie Kelley, EY Americas IPO Leader, says: “With increased volatility in the markets and the uncertainty surrounding oil prices, interest rates and US elections, we expected a stop-start year for IPO activities. Despite a slower than usual start in the first quarter, we’re seeing signs that the IPO window will finally open. The pipeline of offerings ready to price is building up and IPOs are outperforming the S&P 500 this quarter. As the markets recover and confidence steadies, we are optimistic that IPO levels will start to trend closer to historic norms.”

Moving forward EY is confident that the slowdown in IPO activity will be short term. Once the economic slowdown, falling oil prices and equity markets stabilise, there should be a flotilla of companies ready to act on their IPO plans.

Report: EY Global IPO Trends: 2016 1Q

European IPO activity: slight 2016 decline expected following “bumper” 2015

BY Fraser Tennant

Mega deals with a total value of more than €1bn made the European IPO landscape a hive of activity in 2015, according to a newly-published analysis of last year’s market.

Yet, despite the high levels of activity witnessed over the past 12 months, 2016 is expected to be somewhat more subdued, with market conditions serving to hinder IPO activity in the first half of the year especially.

A key finding of PwC’s latest IPO Watch was that European IPOs finished 2015 on a high with total annual proceeds up 16 percent, totalling €57.4bn, and average offering value (excluding IPOs raising less than $5m) up 27 percent year on year, totalling €248m. In addition, London IPO proceeds decreased by 16 percent as the London market was impacted by general election fears, Chinese contagion and tumbling oil prices. PwC’s outlook for the London IPO pipeline, although still containing attractive investment opportunities, remains cautious and less optimistic than this time last year, with overall proceeds expected to fall in 2016.

Furthermore, the IPO Watch forecasts an increase in the number of postponed or cancelled deals in 2016, with many companies battling against the twin forces of market volatility and challenging market conditions. In fact, 61 IPOs were postponed or withdrawn in 2015 (2014 saw 49), 44 due to market conditions.

“As we start 2016, a cold chill has descended across pretty much every market globally – this is certainly a more complex climate to that of 2015,” said Vivienne Maclachlan, PwC’s Capital Markets director. “We rounded off last year with six bumper IPOs, which really saved the day from an annual IPO proceeds standpoint. But that stat really does mask the fact that overall it was not a particularly memorable year for London IPOs.

"This year, I would expect to see the number of companies coming to market to marginally decline, as investors continue to scrutinise investment opportunities and those that can wait, will wait. Having said that, I think 2016 proceeds will be bolstered by the continuing trend of mega deals - the too-big-to-miss-out sentiment - and that we will see a recovery towards the middle of the year.”

PwC’s IPO Watch surveys all new primary market equity IPOs on Europe’s principal stock markets and market segments (including exchanges in Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and the UK) on a quarterly basis. Movements between markets on the same exchange are excluded.

The survey was conducted between 1 January and 31 December 2015 and captures IPOs based on their first trading date.

Report: IPO Watch Europe 2015

$1 trillion wiped from Asian markets as Chinese economic slowdown verges on meltdown

BY Fraser Tennant

In a major drop in stocks verging on a meltdown, more than $1 trillion has been wiped from Asian markets following a sharp drop in the value of Chinese shares.

Yesterday saw the biggest one-day drop since 2007 with the Shanghai Composite, the mainland benchmark index, down 8.5 percent at 3,209.91 points (erasing all the gains made this year), the Hong Kong Seng index closed at 5.2 percent (21,251.57 points), and Japan's Nikkei 225 (the region's biggest stock market), closed 4.6 percent lower (18,540.68 points) - its lowest point in almost five months.

Markets were also dragged down elsewhere in the region with the Australian S&P/ASX 200 finished 4.1 percent lower (5,001.30 points), while South Korea's Kospi index ended yesterday 2.5 percent lower (1,829.81 points).

As Chinese shares continue their fall this week, the country's slowing growth and volatile markets sparked panic among global traders, with stock markets in London, Paris and Frankfurt reacting with alarm to the crisis engulfing the world's second largest economy.

"It is a China driven macro panic," said Didier Duret, chief investment officer at ABN Amro. "Volatility will persist until we see better data there or strong policy action through forceful monetary easing."

In a frenzied attempt to reassure investors, the Beijing government has made use of its cash reserves to shore up the market (a figure of at least $1 trillion as been quoted) and has given the go-ahead for its main state pension fund to invest in the stock market. 

Under the government’s plans, the fund will be allowed to invest up to 30 percent of its net assets in domestically-listed shares. By increasing demand for them, the government hopes prices will rise. So far though, this intervention appears to have done little to calm the fears of traders both within China and overseas. 

"China could be forced to devalue the yuan even more, should its economy falter, and the equity markets are dealing with the prospect of a weaker yuan amplifying the negative impact from a sluggish Chinese economy," said Eiji Kinouchi, chief technical analyst at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo.

If the yuan is devalued further and Chinese citizens end up losing their life savings in the stock market, widespread social unrest may follow: a true nightmare scenario for a an under-fire Beijing government. 

News: Great fall of China sinks world stocks, dollar tumbles

Shanghai-Hong Kong stock exchange link-up heralds new era of international trade

BY Fraser Tennant

Hailed as ‘historic’ and ‘a landmark’, the link-up between the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock exchanges has well and truly opened the floodgates, with billions of dollars set to flow in and out of mainland China – the world’s second-largest economy.

Officially known as the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the new trading platform is expecting to see US$3.8bn a day being generated in cross-border transactions. Many hedge funds, banks, brokerage firms and big institutional investors are waiting in the wings to get their piece of the action.

These international investors purchased 13bn yuan (US$2.1bn) of Shanghai shares on the opening day of the link-up (maxing out the daily limit), while mainland investors got through 1.4bn yuan of the 10.5bn yuan quota in Hong Kong.

While the Hong Kong-Shanghai link is a major step in opening up China’s financial markets, which until now had largely been closed to foreign investment, major trade restrictions, such as the daily US$2.1bn limit on buying stocks, remain.

"It's really the beginning of a new era," said Charles Li, Hong Kong Exchanges chief executive.  “The link is a massive bridge, a massive road. It is going to be here not for days, not for weeks, not even for months, it is going to be here for years and decades."

Others are more circumspect.

Investor Wang Chenyu said “The Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect offers a limited scope of shares for trading and it has investment quotas. It does not have any special advantages."

Castor Pang, head of research at Core Pacific-Yamaichi, added “Mainland investors will have to get used to the trading system. Right now it's the wait and see attitude.”

Although early trading on the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect has gone smoothly, demand has dropped somewhat since the opening day extravaganza. Thus far, Chinese investors have shown little interest in Hong Kong-listed stocks, while international investment into China has slowed markedly since first day trading.

Whether this proves to be the norm, a sign that the link-up has been overhyped, is too early to say.

News: China Stock Link Goes From Through-Train to Ghost Train as Flows Slump